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Arsene Wenger has praised Arsenal’s efficiency in front of goal but is it really sustainable? Adam Bate examines the statistics that suggest the Gunners will need to create more… Arsenal have scored 24 Premier League goals this season. Theyre among the top four scorers. Those teams also happen to be the four at the top of the table and the favourites to win the title according to the bookmakers. In other words, theyre in good company. Six months half price Upgrade to Sky Sports now to watch Man Utd v Arsenal and get the first six months half price But delve deeper into the numbers and Arsenals success so far has been different to rivals Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester City. Its been built on efficiency rather than creativity. A side with a reputation for wastefulness in front of goal has been unusually ruthless. Arsene Wenger has noticed the trend himself. Maybe the reason for us scoring freely of late is that weve been making more of our chances, the manager suggested last month when discussing the matter. The final ball is better. Is that because our finishing is better? Watch NOW TV Watch Sky Sports for just ￡6.99. No contract. Its difficult to analyse at the moment, but what is for sure is that we score more goals. We score lots of goals. Thats what our game is about. We have a risky game and therefore its important that we take our chances.Perhaps cruelly, Wenger took the decision to ruminate on Arsenals efficiency ahead of the home game against Middlesbrough. His players proceeded to play out a 0-0 draw and the tune changed. We have to find a way to be efficient even when the games are like that. The Sunday Supplement panel on whether Mesut Ozil will sign a new deal Thats the crux of the problem. Can Arsenal really be expected to sustain such efficiency? Arsenal have scored a goal for every 5.1 chances theyve created this season - better than anyone else. Thats a good thing. But history would suggest it is too good to continue.The next best conversion rate belongs to Chelsea who are scoring a goal for every 5.7 chances they create. Thats the same as champions Leicester managed in being last seasons most efficient side. The season before that, the best rate was a goal every 6.3 chances. Chances created per goal - Selected teams PL Rank Team Chances / goal 1 Arsenal 5.1 2 Chelsea 5.7 3 Liverpool 5.7 5 Man City 6.1 16 Man Utd 8.8 17 Tottenham 9.5 Across those two seasons Arsenal scored a goal every seventh chance. At that rate they would have scored no more than 18 goals this season. In other words, Wengers side have already scored six more goals than their previous finishing record would have suggested.Arsenals shot conversion rate this season is 14.4 per cent. Again, its a good sign. Leicester had the best rate last season and Chelsea had the best the year before that. Both won the title. But neither topped 13.0 per cent. A dip seems inevitable and that could be an issue. Arsenal conversion rates Season Goals per game Conversion rate 2010/11 1.89 11.0% 2011/12 1.95 11.6% 2012/13 1.89 12.4% 2013/14 1.79 13.8% 2014/15 1.87 11.6% 2015/16 1.71 11.4% 2016/17 2.18 14.4% The reason is that some of Arsenals other underlying numbers are not so impressive. They rank seventh for shots and eighth for shots on target. They are sixth for clear-cut chances created and, unusually for the Gunners, as low as eighth for total chances created.In this sense, they have gone backwards. Arsenal were the only team to create more clear-cut chances than Leicester last season and were joint-top alongside Chelsea the year before. Arsenals dip in creativity 2015/16 rank 2016/17 rank Total shots 4th 7th Shots on target 2nd 8th Chances created 4th 8th Clear chances created 1st 6th Back then Wenger would praise his players for creating chances and bemoan his teams luck. Now, when scoring late goals against Southampton and Watford, its a new line. When Theo Walcott scored twice at Hull, Wenger said: Hes efficient and thats what you want.Thats a big change as Walcott had the worst clear-chance conversion rate of any player who regularly found himself in such positions last season. He converted only four of 15 opportunities that hed be reasonably expected to score according to Opta. Along with Theo Walcott, Oliver Giroud and Alexis Sanchez were two of the 12 players to miss 10+ clear chances last season Walcott and Olivier Giroud were seen as the chief culprits when it came to Arsenals wastefulness but no one man was responsible. Alexis Sanchez, Mesut Ozil and Aaron Ramsey also ranked among the 20 Premier League players who missed eight clear chances or more.Arsenal missed more big chances than any other Premier League team last season and that wasnt all down to the huge volume of opportunities they were creating. They had the worst conversion rate of any top-half team too. But at least they were creating the chances. Highlights of Arsenals 1-1 draw with Tottenham at the Emirates Stadium Arsenal fans wont be too worried just yet if the goals keep coming. But with Santi Cazorla missing, the side has lost a little something from deep. Alex Iwobi, meanwhile, has made a fine start but appears to be a knitter of play rather than a man to open defences on his own. Two shots on target in 565 minutes tells a tale.Against Tottenham last time out, Arsenal had plenty of endeavour but their trademark craft was absent after the frenzy of the first half. We couldnt find the creativity, the fluency around the box and all the things we are used to, said Wenger of that performance. Man Utd vs Arsenal November 19, 2016, 11:30am Live on Get Sky Sports Get a Sky Sports pass Victory at Manchester United on Saturday would see Arsenal briefly go top of the Premier League nevertheless. Its precisely the sort of game where the efficiency theyve been showing would be ideal - an occasion where one chance could be the difference.But if the Gunners are to stay at the top of the table theyll need more than efficiency. Theyll need to up their creativity levels and their shot volumes too. Because history suggests that the current numbers are just not sustainable.Upgrade to Sky Sports now to watch Man Utd v Arsenal this Saturday and get the first six months half price! Also See: Giroud: No worries over future Wenger v Mourinho in quotes Colorado Avalanche Pro Shop . 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But he said he did nothing improper when he sold those shares over the next two days. This story appears in ESPN College Football 2016, on newsstands now. Order online today!Leonard Fournette,?Nick Chubb,?Chad Kelly,?Myles Garrett?-- the SEC is stacked with stars for 2016.But that makes the lesser-known supporting cast so much more important in getting a leg up on the opposition in the ultra-competitive SEC.Here are the 14 biggest X factors in the SEC for next year:East DivisionTennessee Volunteers: New defensive coordinator Bob Shoop?Tennessees defense never ranked higher than No. 7 in the SEC under John Jancek (2013-15), but Shoop has led top-25 units in total defense in each of the past five years, first at Vanderbilt, then at Penn State. He employs a more aggressive system, which should better leverage the Vols speed, especially with the returns of likely early-round draft picks cornerback Cameron Sutton and linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin. With a team that surrendered three double-digit leads last year, Shoops arrival in Knoxville is just what the scoreboard ordered.Georgia Bulldogs: DT Trenton Thompson?After registering just two sacks and 11.5 tackles for loss in 2015, Georgias defensive line desperately needs a playmaker. Thompson, a sophomore, looks ready to make that leap. His development slowed last year (just 2.5 TFLs and half a sack), but the former five-star prospect screams All-American under coach Kirby Smarts watch.Florida Gators: DT Caleb Brantley?The Gators invaded opposing backfields often in 2015, totaling 101 TFLs, and if that dominance holds steady this fall, Brantley likely will be the catalyst. He showed flashes of pure brilliance in 2015, most notably a five-game stretch in which he registered at least half a tackle for loss in each outing but wasnt always asked to do a ton. That will change in 2016, with Jonathan Bullard and his 17.5 TFLs and 6.5 sacks off to the NFL. Brantley might not be a stat machine (three sacks in 2015), but he is disruptive and athletic.South Carolina Gamecocks: DE Darius English?Coach Will Muschamps first order of business on defense will be to amp up South Carolinas pass rush. Opposing quarterbacks were sacked, hit or under duress on only 22.6 percent of dropbacks in 2015, a rate that put the Gamecocks just outside the Power 5s bottom 10. Be on the lookout for English, who could explode at the hybrid Buck spot. His 4? sacks led South Carolina last year, but allowing the senior to move around more and play standing up or squatting with his hand on the ground should up his value. While hes not the biggest end (6-foot-5, 240 pounds), English has enough straightaway speed to be dominant in his new rusher role.Missouri Tigers: WR Chris Black?The Alabama transfer might just be the dependable safety net that quarterback?Drew Lock needs to get Mizzou humming. Though he never caught fire in Tuscaloosa -- 25 catches for 290 yards in three seasons -- Black is a former 22nd-ranked ESPN 150 prep and is arguably the most talented wideout in Columbia. Consider: Missouri had neither vertical attack (16 catches of 25-plus yards in 2015, tied for 119th in the FBS) nor a single go-to receiver. The Tigers return no one with more than 30 catches or 350 yards last year.Kentucky Wildcats: New offensive coordinator Eddie Gran?Gran, a Cincinnati transplant, has his work cut out for him 86 miles down I-75 in Lexington. The Wildcats have not ranked higher than ninth in the SEC in total offense and scoring since 2010. Last year was especially egregious, with Kentucky throwing six more picks (16) than touchdowns (10). Unlike his predecessors, Gran is not an air-raid disciple, but his success running up-tempo, pass-heavy attacks at prior stops should excite the fans in Kentucky. Last year his Bearcats pass offense gained 359.9 yards per game, sixth most in the country.Vanderbilt Commodores: WR C.J. Duncan?Junior wide receiver Trent Sherfield was a pleasant surprise last season (six games with 50-plus receiving yards), but hell need a castmate. Enter Duncan, who returns after missing all of 2015 with a leg injury. The versatile junior can line up in the backfield, be used in motion or sit down as a normal receiver.ddddddddddddThat flexibility is gold, not just for Sherfield but for Vandys young quarterback. Kyle Shurmur started five games last year as a true freshman, and though he is certainly the most promising signal-caller of the Derek Mason era, his QBR was 17.3. Attention, C.J.: Shurmur needs playmakers to shoulder the load.West DivisionLSU Tigers:?The linebackers?Former Wisconsin defensive coordinator Dave Aranda and his attacking 3-4 base arrive in Baton Rouge for 2016. The Tigers will be transitioning from last years 4-3, and Arandas scheme, which draws up exotic blitzes from its linebackers, will ask more from the unit in 2016. Speedy defenders like seniors Kendell Beckwith (10 TFLs in 2015) and Duke Riley will help LSUs defensive ends attack the edges.Alabama Crimson Tide: New defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt?Other SEC programs made splashier hires (Bob Shoop to Tennessee, Dave Aranda to LSU), but bringing Pruitt back into the Alabama fold was a no-brainer for head coach Nick Saban. Pruitt cut his teeth in Tuscaloosa before moving on to direct defenses at Florida State (2013) and Georgia (2014-15), where his units ranked top 20 in the nation in scoring and yards per game each year. Alabama has signed 34 ESPN 300 defensive prospects since 2013, so hell have plenty of talent to help ward off any drop-off from the Kirby Smart era.Ole Miss Rebels: LB Rommel Mageo?Mageos decision to take up residence in Oxford as a graduate transfer (Oregon State) is welcome news for the Rebels defense. The linebacker led the Beavers with 87 tackles last year, so hell provide a critical, and immediate, boost to a linebacker unit that loses C.J. Johnson and Denzel Nkemdiche (18 starts and 96 tackles combined in 15) and that needs a playmaking complement to junior DeMarquis Gates.Texas A&M Aggies: The offensive line?In February, head coach Kevin Sumlin brought back Jim Turner for a second stint leading the Aggies offensive line, and hell be entrusted with overhauling a thin, inexperienced unit. Texas A&M surrendered 2.9 sacks per game in 2015, tied for 107th in the nation, so Turners ability to turn around a porous line might just be the key to the Aggies returning to form on offense. In its first year post-Johnny Manziel, A&M maintained a solid 6.3 yards per play (No. 26 in the FBS) but flatlined in 2015 with 5.6 (No. 69).Mississippi State Bulldogs: Defensive coordinator Peter Sirmon?Sirmon is the latest to cycle through the Mississippi State revolving door of defensive coordinators and is Dan Mullens sixth coach to hold the spot in eight seasons. The first-time defensive coordinator (he coached linebackers at Tennessee, Washington and USC) will mix in some 3-4 alignments with the Bulldogs 4-3 base, including a new hybrid end/linebacker spot he calls viper, which should leverage the teams wealth of defensive ends.Auburn Tigers: LB Tre Williams?All three starting linebackers from 2015 are gone (Kris Frost, Cassanova McKinzy, Justin Garrett: 593 combined tackles since 2012), so Williams returns to The Plains as the units most experienced Tiger. The departing starters predicted last year that Williams, who came up with 55 tackles and four TFLs in 2015, was ready to take over the D. Hell need to if Auburn has any hope of resurrecting a dormant rush defense. The Tigers allowed 4.5 yards per carry last year, 11th in the SEC.Arkansas Razorbacks: The running backs?Sophomore Rawleigh Williams III?is coming back from a scary neck injury, former QB and now-WR Damon Mitchell is still learning the intricacies of the position, and true freshmen Devwah Whaley and T.J. Hammonds are promising (2016 ESPN 300 preps) but unproven. That leaves senior Kody Walker to take on an expanded role after backing up Alex Collins last year. Walker rushed for at least one TD in four of Arkansas final seven games -- production that will be critical for a team that ran the ball on 57.8 percent of its plays in 2015 (No. 14 in the Power 5). ' ' '