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Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott look awesome this season, you might have heard. Neither Prescott nor Wentz would have expected to start the year under center for his team when the preseason started, but the injury to Tony Romo and the trade of Sam Bradford opened up starting spots for the two rookie quarterbacks, and here we are. Neither NFC East starter has thrown an interception through his first three starts. Prescott ranks fourth in the league in Total QBR with an 82.5 mark, while Wentz comes in at 11th at 66.0. The two passers teams have combined to start 5-1.Nobody can argue that Prescott and Wentz have been disappointing. Quite the opposite, actually: Draftniks and fans who believed in the two quarterbacks before this years draft have been patting themselves on the back for backing the right horses. Eagles general manager Howie Roseman has garnered credit for trading a pile of draft value to grab Wentz, while the hapless 0-3 Browns are already being dragged through the ringer after trading away the opportunity to draft him with the second overall pick even with all the draft picks now in hand.History also tells us, though, that there are examples of touted quarterbacks who lived up to the hype before fading, some fast.Most recently, Robert Griffin III?looked for all the world to be a superstar after his first season, not just first three games, and the Rams took flak for their decision to trade away the second pick and allow Washington to grab him. That trade turned out to be prescient. Mark Sanchez won his first three starts, including a 16-9 victory over Tom Brady. Ryan Leaf won his first two starts, albeit with middling numbers, before throwing one touchdown against 13 interceptions in his eight ensuing contests as a rookie, in which San Diego went 1-7. You get the idea. There are many others you could point to.We look back now and recognize the obvious flaws in their cases, but at the time, those issues seemed like they were small problems in an otherwise impressive package. Maybe well look back at Prescott and see how he collapsed when he wasnt supported by a dominant offensive line and a great running game, or rue how Wentz leaned into too many big hits and failed to adapt when teams took away his short passes. Its way too early to say.Or is it?Players will always take weird career paths, but on the whole, when can we say with any confidence that a quarterback who is playing at a high level to start his career will continue to play that way? How long does it take for a quarterback to prove his mettle -- or, alternately, how quickly can we identify the ones who dont have it? It would be fair to say that answering the question is an inexact science, but lets take a stab at that exact problem here.Theres no correct way to do this, because one persons definition of success is different from anothers. The methodology I landed on was to sort every quarterback who has thrown 10 passes or more during his first four seasons since entering the league in 1990 into one of six groups, which Ill explain here. The choices are arbitrary, but theyre designed to make it easier to identify successful quarterbacks, and they were made before looking at any of the data on hand.Group 1: The superstars. The no-doubt perennial Pro Bowlers, annual MVP candidates and plausible future Hall of Famers. This group ranges from Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers on the high end to Eli Manning and Carson Palmer on the low end. Obviously, it would be great if Prescott and Wentz ended up here.Group 2: The stars. These are the quarterbacks who put together (or are putting together) lengthy careers as typically above-average regulars, with a year or two where they leaped into the upper echelon. Your typical quarterbacks in this group are guys like Drew Bledsoe, Joe Flacco?and Michael Vick. It would be very exciting for Prescott to end up here given his draft status, and it would be a fair return for Wentz as the second overall pick.Group 3: The flashes. These are passers who have had one or even two big seasons over the course of their careers but were too inconsistent or injury-prone to stay as above-average regulars at the position. The group includes quarterbacks like Colin Kaepernick and Griffin, along with players like Jeff George and Marc Bulger. This is about the lowest Prescott could fall and still be a successful quarterback given his draft return. The Eagles expect more of Wentz after trading so much draft capital for the former North Dakota State star.Group 4: The first-round disappointments. Cant be much clearer than this. The word bust is generally unfair to use given how many variables go into developing a quarterback, but these are the guys who did not become their teams (or any teams) franchise quarterback after being taken in the first round. Its everyone from JaMarcus Russell to Leaf to Johnny Manziel. Obviously, Prescott wasnt a first-round pick, but neither he nor Wentz wants to end up looking similar to the players in this group.Group 5: The to-be-determineds. These are the recent quarterbacks who are still either on rookie deals (such as?Blake Bortles) or in the first year of their second contracts (such as?Brock Osweiler). Its too early to put them in any of the other groups. Its important to separate them out from everyone else, but theyre mostly irrelevant in terms of projecting the long-term performance of Prescott and Wentz; by the time we know what we have with those two, everyone in this group will have his own future resolved, too.Group 6: Everyone else. This is a big bucket of backup quarterbacks and replacement-level journeymen who werent taken in the first round of the draft. Theres no shame in that, of course, but its not the group that either of these promising rookies wants to end up occupying.I went through the game logs of each quarterback who made his debut after 1990, a 25-year sample, and tracked how they all performed, appearance by appearance. I included only games in which they threw 10 passes or more and contests that took place during the first four years of their career, the length of the typical rookie contract. To measure each players performance, I used adjusted yards per attempt, which is a souped-up passer rating; to adjust it for era, I compared the AY/A to the league average in the year in which it was recorded. So if Aaron Rodgers posted 8.0 AY/A last year and the league average was 7.0, Drew Brees was 14.2 percent above average.Lets test different lengths of time and see how our groups differed in terms of their average AY/A versus the league baseline to see where the stars broke away from the pack. For reference, through three games, Wentzs 8.5 AY/A is 21.4 percent better than the league average of 7.0, while Prescotts 7.9 AY/A figure is 12.9 percent ahead of the mean.What we see after four games:?Lets start with what qualifies as a round number in football. A quarter of a season seems way too early to declare anything, but even after four games and as few as 40 pass attempts, we can already see a pretty notable difference between the absolute top-level stars and the vast majority of other rookie quarterbacks. Thats not to say there arent exceptions. Both Eli and Peyton Manning were messes as rookies. Palmer sat the entirety of his rookie year (zero throws)?and still struggled during his first four starts.On the other hand, Jake Locker was a force of nature in his first four appearances, posting 8.5 AY/A with five touchdowns against one pick. Tim Tebow was effective in his own weird way by throwing downfield without even considering his rushing value. Dave Brown of the Giants went 3-1 with a completion percentage and level of efficiency that he would fail to match the rest of the way. Theres a gap, and plenty of examples suggest that we would struggle to tell the transcendent players from the eventual disappointments. And the second tier of useful long-term starters is actually still bad.What we see after eight games:?With eight games in the books, everyone improves notably besides the busts, who never really get any better. There are still effective first-round busts like Patrick Ramsey and Andre Ware, but just nine of the 31 players in the group post an AY/A better than league average over their first eight appearances. Twelve of the 17 superstars are on the positive side of the ledger, with Donovan McNabb the low man on the totem pole. We also still really cant separate the pretty good long-term contributors from the guys who are merely off to hot starts.What we see after 16 games:?With a full 16 games of data to look at, the useful quarterbacks in the group really begin to pull away. Perhaps more accurately, the disappointing picks have revealed themselves to be mistakes. The only players in Group 4 to post AY/A figures 10 percent better than league average over their first 16 games are Ramsey and Tim Couch, each of whom had his career waylaid by coaching changes, pass-protection issues and injuries. Leaf, meanwhile, has seven touchdowns against 24 picks in the qualifying games with a AY/A 43.3 percent below league average. Figured something out there.What we see after 32 games: It looks like it really takes two full seasons worth of data to get a real sense of separation between useful, productive quarterbacks and those who failed to live up to expectations. Unsurprisingly given their name, the flashes in the pan have regressed back toward league average, while the useful contributors have showed the consistency that separates them from those inconsistent options. The best first-round bust is David Carr, whose AY/A is 6.7 percent above league average. The worst superstar is Brees, who is 3.6 percent below league average. Its worth remembering that Brees struggled enough during his first two seasons as a starter that the Chargers handed the job over for a time to Doug Flutie before acquiring Philip Rivers in a draft-day trade during the 2004 offseason.It wasnt until his fourth season in the league that Brees played like a Pro Bowl quarterback, and hes been excellent ever since.The lesson to take away from all of this, as best I can tell from history, is that the excitement around Prescott and Wentz is justified, in part because theyve managed to avoid failing immediately. The washout rate for players who struggle at the very beginning of their professional careers, even first-round picks, is higher than I expected. Whether by a lack of opportunity or an inability to adapt, cases like that of Brees are few and far between.At the same time, its way too early to crown Prescott and Wentz as future superstars and come up with trade packages for Romo while laughing at the Browns. Theyre not going to go the rest of their respective careers without throwing an interception. Theyre going to lose key pieces, as Prescott is likely to experience this weekend with Dez Bryant unlikely to play. Theyll go down early in games and have to throw against teams teeing off on passes to catch up. Theyll take hits and have to play at 80 percent, and even worse, they might develop bad habits with relation to the pass rush to avoid getting hit again. Defenses will make adjustments, and Prescott and Wentz and the ex-quarterbacks who coach them will make adjustments, and we may very well end up in a different place from where we all started.As tempting as it is to crow about a future secured, Cowboys and Eagles fans should probably wait at least until the end of the season before they start naming their children Dak and Carson. Put it this way: If everything works out right, theyll have plenty of time to brag about their new franchise quarterbacks. Wholesale Brewers Jerseys .ca looks back at the stories and moments that made the year memorable. Cheap MLB Jerseys . The person spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because the Lions have not announced the hiring, which was first reported by ESPN. Lombardi, the grandson of former Green Bay Hall of Fame coach Vince Lombardi, has been an offensive assistant on Sean Paytons New Orleans staff since 2007. http://www.cheapbrewersjerseys.com/ .Y. -- Leading 3-0 with only 11:25 left, the Colorado Avalanche committed a seemingly meaningless penalty to give the New York Islanders a power play. Cheap Paul Molitor Jersey . -- Jimmy Walkers first PGA Tour trophy came with a special gift tucked inside. Cheap MLB Jerseys Authentic . Rousey will put her perfect 8-0 record and hardware on the line against another undefeated fighter, 7-0 Sara McMann in the main event of UFC 170, which will be held at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas Nevada on February 22nd. SAN FRANCISCO -- The oldest Latino civil rights group in the United States opens every meeting with the Pledge of Allegiance, a tradition resulting from a long fight to prove Hispanics belong in this country.In the San Francisco Bay Area, a white father of two says he would never require his young daughters to recite the pledge to show their patriotism.And in North Dakota, Native American protesters whose ancestors were here long before there was a United States waved American flags as they fought a proposed pipeline near sacred tribal land. Some demonstrators flew the flag upside down as a distress symbol.San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernicks refusal to stand during The Star-Spangled Banner in protest against racial oppression and police brutality has brought to light deep and sometimes surprising differences in the way Americans view the flag, the national anthem and the pledge.The symbols, people say, inspire skepticism and heartbreak, pride and joy, sometimes all at once in the same person. Some minorities, in particular, have conflicted feelings about symbols honoring a country that has not always treated all people equally.The flag is important to us because we have so many relatives in the military, said Justin Poor Bear, a 38-year-old member of the Oglala Lakota tribe from Allen, South Dakota. There is also a lot of pain.Following Kaepernicks example, pro athletes and high school students across the country are taking a knee or linking arms during the national anthem before sporting events.The protests have raised questions of who gets to be called a patriot.Jason Pontius, a 46-year-old white resident of Alameda, California, said the U.S. of all countries should realize that blind devotion is not the American way. Sometimes when he drops off his second-grader at school, he sticks around while she recites the Pledge of Allegiance with her class. But he doesnt join in.What makes America great, he said, is that people have always challenged the idea of what America stands for.Yet there are organizations that embrace the flag precisely as a way to declare that their members, too, are Americans.The League of United Latin American Citizens -- the nations oldest Latino civil rights group, founded in Texas by World War I veterans -- has historically opened all its meetings with the pledge and a prayer similar to one George Washington is said to have recited.Dennis W. Montoya, the leagues state director in New Mexico, said the groups emphasis on American pride is connected with a long fight by Latinos to prove they belong in this country.If someone doesnt stand for the pledge at one of our meetings, that person will probably be kicked out, Montoya said. Its disrespecting LULACs rituals and traditions.African-Americans have been moveed to create symbols that better reflect their history.dddddddddddd.The national anthem, for example, was written by a slave owner and contains a painful reference to slavery in its little-known third stanza. The NAACP dubbed Lift Evry Voice and Sing the black national anthem in 1919.The hymn is a staple of African American singers and is so important that the clergy member who gave the benediction at President Barack Obamas 2009 inauguration opened with lines from the song.After Kaepernick started his protest in August, C.C. Washington of Waco, Texas, read all the stanzas of The Star-Spangled Banner, including the one that refers derisively to slaves who fought for the British in exchange for their freedom.The 65-year-old African-American retiree -- fresh off visiting the Statue of Liberty last week -- felt betrayed.All this time, Ive been posting on Facebook: Respect our flag, respect our national anthem. Now its totally different, she said, choking up. Ill stand out of respect for the people standing next to me, not because I believe it.Poor Bear said he started looking at the anthem differently after he took a group of Oglala Lakota students to a minor-league hockey game last year. A man yelled slurs and sprayed the children with beer, incensed that one of them did not stand for the national anthem, Poor Bear said. The student had been putting batteries into a camera.So I still stand for the national anthem, Poor Bear said. But I no longer put my hand over my heart.Linda Tamura, a retired professor of education in Portland, Oregon, has no personal objections to the anthem or the flag, even though her family was among tens of thousands of Japanese-Americans put in internment camps by the U.S. government during World War II.Her father volunteered for the military, along with her uncle and other Japanese-American men who felt it was their duty. When she looks at the Stars and Stripes, she says, she feels pride, instilled in part by her parents, who more than anything wanted us to believe in our country.At the same time, she salutes the growing protest movement and hopes it triggers broader discussions about how to improve relations.Thats why my father was in the military. Thats why were part of America. Thats why we believe in America, she said. Because we have the right to say what we believe.---Contreras reported from Albuquerque, New Mexico. AP staff writer Deepti Hajela and stringer Rachelle Blidner contributed to this story from New York. Staff writers Errin Haines Whack contributed from Philadelphia; Jesse J. Holland and Noreen Nasir from Washington.---Follow Janie Har on Twitter at www.twitter.com/byjaniehar ' ' '