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With a defense and special teams both ranked in the middle of the pack, its clear that the Dallas Cowboys hopes this season rest with an offense that is ranked first in Expected Points Added (EPA) per game and EPA per snap. But Dallas is nearing a crossroads at the games most important position. Should they continue to ride rookie sensation Dak Prescott, or lean on veteran Tony Romo?when he returns? Its not as simple as saying, The team has gone 5-1 so far, so lets stick with him. The Cowboys coaches are obviously in the best position to understand each QBs abilities, but it might be wise to add some numbers to the discussion.Prescott has only six starts under his belt, so we dont have a long track record to examine. Theres little doubt hes talented, but when players start out very hot, its very difficult to sustain that level of performance. Usually, many favorable factors have combined to allow such a strong start, and those factors are far from assured to persist. Its not a guarantee, just a strong tendency known as reversion to the mean.To examine this further, I grouped all new starting QBs since 2001 into five quintiles (equally sized groups) according to how well their entire offenses did in their first six starts. Then I compared those performances with how each quintiles offenses did in their next 10 starts. The idea is to look at offenses as a whole, rather than just how the QB himself performs, for two reasons. Dallas has a lot of good pieces around Prescott, and those pieces and his own abilities complement each other. And overall offensive performance is also the thing the Cowboys care about the most -- theyre not in a fantasy league, after all.Prescott is in good company in the top quintile, which includes guys such as?Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger?and Cam Newton. But it also includes QBs who faded after hot starts, such as Tim Rattay, Aaron Brooks and Marc Bulger. Trevor Siemian and Carson Wentz, two other notable newcomers to the league, would currently fall into the second-best group.Each of the five quintiles regresses to the mean in a different way, and Prescotts Cowboys would fall into the top quintile that holds on to much of its high level of performance through the next 10 starts. We can expect the Dallas offense to regress similarly, in the manner reflected in the graph below.Accounting for that regression, Prescotts Cowboys can expect to average about .09 EPA per snap, which would still be excellent, about sixth or seventh in the league. For context, over a typical game of about 67 plays, .09 EPA per snap would translate into about +4 net points above the league average (.03 EPA per snap is the league average so far in 2016). But how does this compare with what we would expect from Romo?The Cowboys offensive production during Romos career averages .07 EPA per snap, or about +3 net points per game above average, slightly less than what we might expect with Prescott. But in his last 32 starts, Dallas has performed slightly better, at .09 EPA per snap, or about +4 net points above average per game.There are many considerations we havent accounted for, such as Romos age and associated injury concerns, Dez Bryants absence or presence, or opponent strength. But by seeing how top offenses tend to perform after hot starts under new QBs, we can get a rough approximation of what to expect through the rest of the regular season. The results of this exercise show that, analytically speaking, the Cowboys can feel justified going with either quarterback.China Shoes Cheap . 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Needing to win with a bonus point in order to reach the elimination final, the Redbacks were set a tall order with a target of 296 that would need to be reached inside 40 overs.South Australia did their best to ensure their tempo was up to standard, opener and captain Travis Head racing to 35 from 18 balls and Tom Cooper making 63 off 65, and gave themselves a chance if they could keep enough wicckets in hand.ddddddddddddBut Stevenson claimed the wickets of Jake Weatherald and Jake Lehmann and then ran through the tail as the Redbacks were bowled out for 267 in the 39th over.Earlier, contributions from Alex Doolan (79), Dom Michael (57), Tim Paine (44) and Ben McDermott (44) pushed the Tigers to 7 for 295 from their 50 overs.Tasmania finished fifth on the tournament table and South Australia sixth, and the elimination final will now be played between New South Wales and Victoria for a place in the decider against Queensland. ' ' '